This weekend marks the return of 'Star Wars' to theaters after a seven-year hiatus, but the film 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' has recorded only $12 million in Thursday night preview sales, the lowest in the franchise's history, surpassing the previous low of $14.1 million from 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' in 2018.
Analysts project the film could earn around $80 million over its opening weekend and $95 million for the four-day Memorial Day holiday, although some estimates suggest it could reach $95 million and $115 million, respectively. This would still represent one of the smallest openings for a 'Star Wars' film in modern history, with only 'Solo' previously opening below $100 million domestically.
The film's performance is critical as it serves as a test for future 'Star Wars' theatrical releases, especially given the franchise's recent struggles at the box office. Disney has not released a 'Star Wars' film since 2019's 'The Rise of Skywalker,' which, despite grossing over $1 billion, received negative reviews.
The studio has shifted focus to streaming, with 'The Mandalorian' being a significant success on Disney+. The production budget for 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' is estimated at $165 million, lower than previous films, which may lower its profitability threshold.
Additionally, the film's release is tied to a consumer products launch, which could bolster Disney's revenue, especially given the popularity of the character Grogu, also known as 'Baby Yoda.' Historical data shows that 'Star Wars' merchandise sales can be substantial, as seen in 2015 when Hasbro reported nearly $500 million in sales following 'The Force Awakens.' Disney is also leveraging the film's release with themed merchandise and attractions at its parks