Kalshi traders see greater odds that Anthropic will announce an initial public offering this year after several news outlets reported that the company plans to warn investors in its IPO prospectus that its models are dangerous. Chances that the AI company announces an initial public offering before November jumped from 4.7% on Sept. 28 to 16% Wednesday afternoon.
Kalshi traders see a greater than 60% chance an IPO is announced before December and nearly 80% likelihood that it happens before January. The contract asks when the company will announce an IPO and will be verified from news outlets and the company itself, according to Kalshi website.
Founded in 2021, the AI company alerted speculative investors its models are a "catastrophic or existential risk to humanity," according to a Reuters report.
The same report said Anthropic warned AI can "resist shutdown," hide or "manipulate information" or exhibit behavior "resembling blackmail." Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June and is seeking a $2 trillion valuation when it goes public. Reuters reported the company plans to spend over $500 billion on cloud computing, among other infrastructure in the coming year.
Escalating concerns on how AI can devastate humanity is coming from multiple companies. Anthropic's competitor, OpenAI, cited issues on AI safety when stating the company is not expected to go public this year. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote an essay requesting that AI companies slow down the process of improving their most advanced models earlier this month.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk supported the proposal. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment