Pope Leo's recent encyclical warns of a 'social calamity' stemming from mass unemployment linked to artificial intelligence technologies. He emphasizes the need for regulation, stating that the pursuit of profit should not come at the expense of jobs, as human dignity must take precedence over economic interests.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi reflect this concern, assigning a 60% probability that U.S. unemployment will exceed 8% before 2030, with a 47% chance of it surpassing 9%. Historically, such high unemployment rates have only occurred during severe recessions. While traders see a low likelihood of a recession in 2026, they predict a 45% chance in 2027.
Currently, they attribute a 78% probability to AI being the primary cause of job cuts in May, pending confirmation from employment data. Pope Leo stresses that work is essential not just for sustenance but also for social engagement and community contribution, warning that a society with high technical development but low employment risks cultural impoverishment.
This discourse raises critical questions about the future of work and the societal impacts of technological advancement