Recent reports indicate that OpenAI plans to confidentially file for an IPO as early as Friday, shifting market predictions in its favor. Traders on Kalshi now assign an 83% probability to OpenAI going public before its main competitor, Anthropic, which has seen its chances drop from 69% to 20%.
Dan Ives, from Wedbush Securities, emphasized the importance of being the first to enter public markets, as it establishes a valuation and allows for early investor engagement. Despite OpenAI's pivotal role in sparking the AI bull market with ChatGPT in November 2022, concerns about its spending, missed revenue targets, and leadership changes have dampened investor enthusiasm.
In contrast, Anthropic has experienced significant growth, driven by its Claude models, and is reportedly seeking funding that could value it at $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's latest valuation. The competitive landscape is further complicated by internal disagreements at OpenAI regarding the IPO timeline.
However, following a recent legal victory against Elon Musk and the impending IPO filing, analysts like Ives suggest this could mark a turning point for OpenAI, potentially alleviating some of the negative sentiment surrounding the company